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Phoenix’s 2026 Housing Market Correction
The housing market in Phoenix is expected to keep getting better as we move into 2026, after the whiplash cycles of the early 2020s. Sales that have been closed have risen from their pandemic low. Mortgage rates have steadied sufficiently for buyers to negotiate, and the Valley’s inventory, which has been stuck for a long time, is starting to move, albeit slowly.
The Valley’s sales are stabilizing and prices are falling, but the area economy is still growing faster than the national economy. Phoenix’s growth as a center for semiconductors, healthcare, and advanced manufacturing is changing the way people move and work. At the same time, buyers and sellers are still getting used to higher borrowing costs, rising prices, and a tightening consumer attitude.
The housing market is no longer overly hot or in correction; it’s getting back on track. Experts don’t think the big question is whether Phoenix will grow. It’s how that expansion will affect the economy, which is hampered by low supply and customers who aren’t sure what to trust.
History of the Phoenix housing market correction
To understand whether the Phoenix Housing Market Correction will keep going, we need to look back at its origins. The downturn happened because the market was too hot in 2021 and 2022, when low loan rates and working from home made people want to buy homes. By the end of 2025, the average home price in Phoenix had risen to roughly $448,000. But when the Federal Reserve raised rates to fight inflation, the cost of borrowing went up, which kept many possible buyers from buying. Sellers held off, which caused inventory to pile up by 2023. This led to a standoff that lasted until 2025.
During this time, there was a “whiplash cycle,” with sales and prices both declining. Home prices were down 0.43% in August 2025 compared to the same month the year before. This shows that the market was somewhat competitive but also cooling down. Things like migration patterns, Phoenix drew people from high-cost regions like California—kept demand high at first, but economy changes, such as shifts in the tech and manufacturing labor markets, led to the decline. New building shot up, with listings up 17% in early 2025, which helped with the lack of available homes. This background sets the stage for 2026, when the correction’s momentum might either slow down or keep going as stabilizing forces come into play.
The housing market is being driven by Phoenix’s economy.
But housing is just one part of Phoenix’s bigger economy. The region’s potential to avert a larger drop during the rate shock of the mid-2020s is directly related to the strength of its job engines.
The story of Christine Mackay, president and CEO of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council, begins more than 10 years ago.
“We were a city founded on technology: semiconductors, Motorola, and aerospace. “We lost touch with that in the ’90s,” she says. “But about ten years ago, the state finally gave cities the tools we needed to compete again. Phoenix made a conscious choice to go back to what we do best.”
You can see the effects of that choice all over the state.
TSMC’s north Phoenix site and its network of semiconductor suppliers are still employing more engineers, operations staff, and materials scientists. Intel’s multibillion-dollar investment in Chandler is what keeps one of the Valley’s most successful advanced manufacturing districts going. The LG Energy plant in Queen Creek is becoming another place where people can find high-paying jobs.
Biosciences and health care are also growing significantly. Mackay says, “Mayo is basically building a second campus.” “Downtown Phoenix has turned into a hub for health and education.” SkySong is growing quicker than we thought it would.
Fields like engineering, healthcare, and supply chain technology don’t merely provide jobs. They create jobs that pay well. That difference is important for the property market.
“What we’re seeing is not just more jobs, but also higher wages. Mackay claims that these companies are paying people enough to buy a home.
Phoenix keeps attracting young, skilled professionals from California, Washington, the Midwest, and more lately, New York. This tendency is supported by migration patterns. Most of the increase in the region, which currently has more than 5.2 million people, is happening in Pinal County and the West Valley, where there is more land available and development is still going on.
Mackay says, “Our workforce is one of the youngest in the country.” “We’re keeping our college graduates and bringing in folks with a lot of skills. That’s changing our neighborhoods and the direction of housing demand.
This economic growth protects against big changes in the housing market. Tamboer says, “When you have strong job growth, you’re not going to see a flood of foreclosures.” People don’t have to sell, but they might.
Is the Phoenix Housing Market Correction a Crash?
People often ask if the pullback in the Phoenix housing market means that a crash is coming. The quick answer is no, it’s not likely. A correction is not the same as a crash in terms of size or cause.
A housing crash often leads to many foreclosures, a weak economy, and significant job losses. During the 2008 financial crisis, Phoenix had a really bad crash. But things are quite different now. Lending criteria are stricter, homeowners have greater equity, and the unemployment rate is still rather low.
Most experts think the current correction is a healthy adjustment, not a collapse. Prices are not falling; they are cooling off, and the market is moving toward balance. That’s a typical stage that happens after years of too much growth.
How the correction affects buyers
The decline in the Phoenix housing market presents both problems and opportunities for buyers. On the plus side, purchasers can now negotiate better than they could in years. There is more time to consider, look around, and discuss price or repairs when there are fewer bidding wars.
But financing it is still a problem. Prices have gone down in some areas, but higher mortgage rates mean monthly payments can still feel hefty. When buyers enter the market, they need to be smart, practical, and patient.
The correction also lets customers make more informed choices. Buyers don’t have to settle for any house offered; they can look for residences that really match their needs. Sellers are often more eager to help with closing costs or buy down rates to get a deal done.
What Will Happen to the Phoenix Housing Market in 2026
Experts’ predictions for 2026 point to a slow recovery rather than a severe correction that continues. Zillow says home values nationwide will rise by 1.2%. Phoenix will probably follow suit, with values going up by 0% to 3%. Nationally, home sales are predicted to rise by 14%. Phoenix will profit from this rise as rates level off around 6.3%.
Local analysts think that things will become more balanced, with increased inventory reducing pricing pressures and creating a “sweet spot” for investors. Some people think prices will go down a little as supply increases, while others think prices will keep rising as more people move to the area and the economy remains strong. Most people agree that the Phoenix Housing Market Correction may slow down and turn into a “great housing reset” with lower prices and more sales.
In terms of specifics, housing prices might rise by 1.9% by August 2026, and sales could be slightly higher than in 2025. This view depends on rates continuing to fall and on the economy not facing any major problems.
Conclusion
The Phoenix Housing Market Correction has been the most important factor in recent years, but research suggests it may not last until 2026. The market looks ready for a balanced rebound, as mortgage rates are stabilizing, inventory is rising, and prices are slowly rising. This change gives us optimism that things will be more affordable and active, but there are still some questions. Stakeholders should stay alert and consult local experts to help them navigate this changing scenario. As Phoenix continues to grow, the strength of its housing market will likely show through, making 2026 a year of cautious hope.
Sara (Goursaud) gets stuck. She isn’t really there anymore. She was in the park with her little son and had just finished talking to him about his dead father when a helicopter flew by overhead, waking her up from a PTSD nightmare: That terrible day in Afghanistan. She was in the army. On a mission that is sure to fail. The American father of the boy was one of the dead. Sara was the only one who lived, which is a miracle because she didn’t know she was pregnant until later. She is in a trance-like state when a man bumps into her at the park and wakes her up. She reflexively hits him and pins him down. This is what happens to people who work in special forces.
We see Sara working out four years after what happened in the park. Difficult. Hitting, kicking, kneeing, and elbowing the air with a lot of force. What would it be like if she hit you instead? I guess it’s not great. She has a large scar on her shoulder. She takes a prescription drug, gets a call from a reporter who wants to talk about what happened in Afghanistan, and hangs up. It’s probably simply too much for now. She also wants to put all of that behind her by migrating to the U.S. She picks up Josh, who is now six years old, and they go to the U.S. consulate building to apply for her work visa. Hours go by, and Josh is still restless. She leaves him at a nearby children’s play area for a bit, which is obviously a horrible choice because the boy disappears in the short time it takes her to get a coffee. She looks everywhere, but he is gone. This is the worst thing a parent can experience, other than the unfathomable.
Sara obtains support from Erik Kynch (Dougray Scott), a security guard and an embassy official. Is it just me, or do these guys seem a little too cool for the situation? Kynch says there is no record of the boy checking into the building, but that’s not true because we saw it happen. But this movie never leaves Sara’s point of view, and don’t forget about the medicines she took to assist her deal with PTSD-related delusions and psychotic episodes. Right: Oh no. The German police can’t help because this is technically U.S. territory. Kynch shows her security camera footage of her in the building without a small boy next to her. This could have been more convincing before AI, so now we know we can’t trust this guy.
But we’re a step or two ahead of Sara, who is still in a panic but is starting to see that she’s being gaslit. Kynch and his friends lock her in a room, and that’s when they first make a mistake about this angry mama bear that has been separated from her child. She is far more deadly than the typical bear. She climbs out of windows, jumps off roofs, and breaks a skylight into the basement level. Soon, she is swimming with a school of red herrings: Who were those two shady persons she spotted in the hall when Josh went missing? She finds Irina (Lera Abova) hiding in a too-quiet part of the consulate and is eager to trade with Sara if she helps her get out. Can she trust Irina? What is up with this duffel bag full of drugs they find? And even more strangely, why hasn’t Kynch set off every alarm in the building since a dangerous ex-special ops soldier is loose in a high-security government facility? NO SPOILERS
Exterritorial REVIEW:
The first clever thing to do is to put a horror cliché—like a mother with a history of mental illness being gaslit about her kid—into an action movie. There are all the standard signs, but they’re all fun to look at. Sara (Jeanne Goursaud, Blood Coast, Barbarians) has PTSD not because she lost a child or got into a car accident, but because she messed up a mission in Afghanistan as a highly trained badass former special forces soldier. There is no ghost, monster, or insane spouse controlling her; instead, it is a U.S. official named Erik Kynch (Dougray Scott). And she’s not bouncing about a broken-down house or the sterile hallways of a mental hospital; she’s in the U.S. consulate building. The title comes from the fact that government buildings are considered exterritorial, thus the consulate is American territory even though it’s in Germany. Sara is in Uncle Sam’s yard. And she’s by herself.
The other thing is art. Exterritorial is based on a lot of intense hand-to-hand fights and chases that are filmed with great clarity and, at times, daring energy. There is an oner in this (watch the whole episode of The Studio for more on this famous movie technique). The dance moves are smooth and look real. Goursaud is a petite, conventionally gorgeous woman, but by the conclusion of this, I was a little scared of her. Everything is fine.
Still, it’s hard to overstate how much heavy lifting the choreography does, even when the plot twists get more and more ridiculous and Sara teams up with Irina (Lera Abova, Anna), a woman she finds in one of the embassy apartments as a sort of political prisoner for reasons that get their own little subplot. Even if all of this is ludicrous, the action is very close-up and handled, with exceptionally long takes that make it clear that the performers are doing most of the work and not stunt doubles. I don’t know why, but I really liked it and thought it was better than most action movies like this one.
Even though the final act of Exterritorial turns into a melodrama and there are a lot of contrivances and awkward line readings, I would still suggest it with a lot of confidence. It’s not trying to be politically controversial or thematically deep; it’s just a well-made action movie with a lot of action. It will keep you busy for an hour and a half, and you’ll probably be happy with it. That’s all that a movie like this needs to be.
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If you’ve ever thought about whether to capitalise Lake Texoma, you’re not the only one. This question often arises when writing, especially when names of places are involved. The phrase “Lake Texoma” is a proper noun, and it should always be capitalised. Let’s get into the arguments behind this.
It is likely that you have pondered whether or not it is appropriate to capitalise the word “lake texoma” whenever you have typed it into a search box, a text message, or even a caption using social media.
Short answer: Yes. Always.
How Important Is Capitalization When Writing?
When used correctly, capitalisation does more than just look nice; it also helps to establish sentence structure by differentiating between proper and common nouns.
- It shows that you are being very specific by naming a certain lake, person, or location.
- Improving Readability: Proper capitalisation clarifies written language.
- Demonstrates Authority and Care: Thoroughly researching and documenting information showcases professionalism.
- Misspelling a proper noun, such as Lake Texoma, can lead to misunderstandings and give the impression of carelessness, particularly in formal settings like schools, newspapers, or businesses.
Why “Lake Texoma” Is Capitalised?
“Lake Texoma” is a proper noun for a place. In English, the names of specific places, cities, rivers, mountains, and lakes are capitalised.
Correct: Lake Texoma is a popular recreation site on the Oklahoma–Texas border.
Incorrect: lake Texoma is a popular recreation spot…
The U.S. Board on Geographic Names (BGN), which standardises place names for government usage, records it as Lake Texoma in its database. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), which is responsible for the reservoir, also uses the name “Lake Texoma” in its official documents. Both confirm that capitalisation is not optional but official usage.
What Does a Proper Noun Mean?
The name of a person, place, or thing is a proper word. Proper nouns, on the other hand, always start with a capital letter and describe unique things, while common nouns refer to general things or ideas. As an example:
New York City is a proper noun.
“New York City” is a proper word, which means it needs to be capitalized because it is a unique place.
| Usage | Correct Form | Incorrect Form |
| Full proper name | Lake Texoma | lake Texoma |
| Generic reference | the lake | the Lake |
| Plural with names | Lakes Erie and Ontario; Lakes Texoma and Whitney | lakes Erie and Ontario |
| Adjective form | Texoma region, Texoma shoreline | texoma region, texoma shoreline |
Does “Lake Texoma” work as a proper noun?
“Lake Texoma” is a proper word, yes. This is why:
- Name of the Place: “Lake Texoma” is the name of a lake on the line between Texas and Oklahoma.
- Unique: This isn’t just any lake; it’s a famous piece of water that has importance in both history and recreation.
- Official Recognition: The U.S. Board on Geographic Names and other government bodies, geographical dictionaries, and style guides all list “Lake Texoma” as a proper noun.
The Most Common Mistakes Writers Make
Mistakes with capitalization can happen to even the most seasoned writers. Some typical errors are:
- Using lowercase “lake texoma” undermines trust.
- The use of different capitalization styles within the same document can lead to reader confusion.
- Common misunderstandings include calling it “the texoma lake” instead of “the texoma lake,” which is the wrong order of words.
- Writing of any kind, from academic papers to travel blogs, benefits from avoiding these errors since it makes the work more professional and easier to understand.
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